Reading the forecast before a hike
The same trail is a different hike if the rain arrives at noon, the wind is up, or the day is hot. Here is what to check, and what to pack.
Check when the rain arrives
A dry morning and a wet afternoon are two different hikes, even on the same trail. Look at what time the rain is supposed to start.
If the rain is only a short burst, you can still go. Stay off the open ridge while it is raining. If rain is likely for most of the day, pick a shorter walk that stays close to the car.
Wind below about 15 mph is easy to ignore under the trees. Above 25 mph, it matters on ridges and along lakes. A gust there can knock you off balance.
A high between about 45°F and 82°F is comfortable for walking. If it will be colder, bring a layer you can take off once you warm up. If it will be hotter, start earlier, carry water, and plan on shade.
Be in the right place when the weather turns
In the mountains in summer, storms often build after lunch. Finish the ridge or the pass before then. Walk back through the woods on the way down.
If the rain is in the morning and the afternoon looks clear, wait it out. Or keep the first stop short and close to the car.
The sun can burn you on an open trail even when the air feels cool. Bring a hat, sleeves, and sunscreen.
If the park has posted a closure, a fire ban, or a storm warning, check it before you leave home. The forecast will not tell you how long the trail is, how muddy it is, or how steep the walk down will feel. You still have to decide that yourself.
What to pack
On a dry, bright day, bring water and sun protection. On a wet or windy day, bring a rain jacket you will actually put on, and an extra layer for when you stop and get cold.
Wet roots and wet rock need shoes you trust. If you already own something, you do not need to buy it again. Get the item the weather calls for that you do not have yet.
Outside Plan shows this forecast on parks and trails near where you are going. Each place gets a score from 0 to 100, with the reasons written out, next to a packing list.
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